🏈 Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans - 1/5/25 👀
Look away kids, this might get ugly.
Two very familiar enemies meet in Tampa Bay on Sunday. One will be eyeing for a division title, while the visitors would like to deliver a parting shot to their rivals before closing the book on a miserable season.
The Baker Mayfield era in Tampa Bay has been cemented this season, with the former #1 pick turned journeyman finally finding his footing in South Florida to the tune of division-leading 9-7 season to go along with his 4,000+ passing yards and nearly 40 passing touchdowns. He will be eager to get that 40th TD pass against a New Orleans team that Tampa lit up for 50 points in their first meeting, and he will have the added motivation of being snubbed for the Pro Bowl despite his prolific numbers. Normally, we might not give any credence to a Pro Bowl snub given how useless the game itself has become, but knowing Baker, he will use anything as extra motivation. The Bucs themselves will have plenty of motivation, because a win here against their longtime rivals will clinch the AFC South and a home playoff game. The Bucs come into this one winning 4 out of their last 5, albeit against bottom tier competition for the most part.
The Saints would love to spoil the party for Baker and his buds (especially Mike Evans), but they have had a hard time spoiling as much as an egg down the stretch of this miserable season that started off flying with Derek Carr, but has since fallen off a cliff. The Saints fired their coach, lost Derek Carr to multiple injuries, lost Chris Olave (until this week), and lost their sense of defensive identity, which now ranks near the bottom in both passing and rushing defense overall. This has culminated in the Saints losing 4 out of their last 5, with the lone win coming against the abysmal Giants by a field goal. Coupled with the poor defense that has plagued the men from NOLA all year, former hotshot prospect Spencer Rattler has struggled mightily since taking over at QB. The Saints have failed to break 20 points in any of their last 7 games and are the only team to be shutout completely in the NFL this season.
New Orleans could get Chris Olave back for this one, but fans might be hoping he takes the extra rest in a meaningless game for the Saints. Most notably, Alvin Kamara will remain out, and the offense will struggle to find balance without their star RB and starting QB.
The Bucs have a couple concerning defensive absentees in this one, including LB Lavonte David and CB Jamel Dean. On the offensive side, star OT Tristan Wirfs and rookie sensation Bucky Irving (RB) will be playing, but TE Cade Otton is now doubtful.
It should be a pleasant and sunny day in South Florida, ideal for an aerial show from the home team.
The Owl predicts:
Tampa Bay 38 New Orleans 13
Tampa’s injury concerns are noteworthy, but they could be missing half of their starters against this New Orleans team and still be a touchdown favorite. We cannot rule out the possibility that the pressure of the situation combines with the spoiler role for a trap game against a division rival, but Tampa should find little to no resistance on defense and Todd Boles can work around his defensive injury woes to stop the putrid New Orleans attack. This should be over relatively quickly and Tampa will keep pressing into the 3rd quarter, but run the clock out in the 4th.
Consensus odds currently:
TB -14 O/U 43.5