🏈 Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati - 1/4/25 👀
Can Joey B overcome his own team and lead the Bengals to an unlikely playoff berth?
Two familiar foes meet in Pittsburgh for a Saturday afternoon delight. The hosts are in the playoffs with an undetermined seed, while Joey B and the visitors are looking to stay hot and try to snag the final AFC playoff spot with some help from the rest of the league. These two teams met just 5 weeks ago, which happens to be the Bengals last loss, a 44-38 rare shootout victory for the Steelers in Cincinnati.
In a season that started off with gusto, the Black and Gold have faded down the stretch, albeit at the hands of some stiff competition, to the tune of the typical Mike Tomlin comfort zone of 10-6. Since the aforementioned victory in Cincinnati, Tomlin’s men have dropped 3 out of 4 to Philly, Baltimore, and Kansas City, with the lone victory coming against the lowly Browns. There has been some talk that the Steelers may not be especially motivated in this spot given their sealed playoff spot, but they can still win the division if Baltimore falters in the earlier Saturday game, and even if they do not, the Steelers will be playing for the 5 seed rather than the 6, and we expect that Mike Tomlin will want to taste winning regardless after this difficult stretch.
The Bengals, on the other hand, are in the midst of a wild ride that has led them back to .500 after numerous disappointing performances in the first 2/3 of the season. Since falling to Pittsburgh, the Bengals have rattled off wins against Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, and Denver. Not exactly murderer’s row, but Bengals fans will be happy to see another week of meaningful football given the ineptitude of the team outside of the offense. Last week, Joe Burrow led the team to a dramatic overtime victory in a must-win situation over the Denver team that they are chasing for the final AFC playoff spot after seemingly leading them to victory multiple drives before overtime. If the Bengals were to win this game and make the playoffs somehow, the rest of the AFC playoff teams will be on alert given their offensive potency.
The Steelers will be thankful to have George Pickens back, especially against a Bengals pass defense that allowed Russell Wilson to throw for over 400 yards in their last meeting.
A few minor injuries on both sides, but the notable ones worth watching here are to Chase Brown (RB) and Tee Higgins (WR), who are both listed as questionable and really make the Bengals offense go. We expect Higgins to play, but Brown is truly questionable and the offense becomes much more one-dimensional when he is not around.
The forecast has improved slightly for this one, and we should have a cold game that is absent of any real wind or precipitation. If any unexpected weather comes in this weekend, expect the total to drop closer to 45.
The Owl says:
Pittsburgh 24 Cincinnati 20
The market’s confidence in Joe Burrow leading the Bengals to a 5th straight victory is rightfully high, but not much has changed with the Bengals porous defense during this win streak against bottom tier teams, and the Steelers have already proven adept at exploiting it just a month ago. The last meeting was a shootout, but history suggests that a cold weather divisional game in Pittsburgh should make points harder to come by as well. We also expect that while the Steelers exploited the Bengals pass defense in the last meeting, they will look to focus on the run game here to shorten the game and keep Joe Burrow off the field as much as possible.
We may all want to see the Bengals sneak into the playoffs, but this bunch will rightfully be sitting at home next week.
Consensus odds currently:
Cincinatti -2 O/U 48