Golden State is not having a fun time. The legendary core was broken apart this season when the front office spurned Klay Thompson and he rightfully left to Dallas, and the remnants are struggling to stay at .500 and manage their workloads with injury problems testing their depth. The recent loss of Jonathan Kuminga, who seemed to be taking a leap this season, is not helping matters, and that has been evident in their last five games, only one of which was a victory while the other four weren’t particularly close losses. Statistically, Golden Sate is now consistently average by almost any metric, and they rely on epic performances by Steph to get them over the hill. He is still very capable of doing so, but the burden appears significant and the Warriors will hope to save enough in the reserve tank for a playoff run.

An up and down season has plagued the Minnesota Timberwolves, after an amazing season a year ago and some major offseason moves that looked to take this team from championship contender to champion. While everyone has struggled to gel in various ways, the most notable has been the unhappiness of star Anthony Edwards, who has become increasingly vocal both on and off the court about the way teams are defending him and his perceived lack of officiating generosity. As a team, a team known for their defense a year ago has seen stretches where they rank near the bottom in defensive efficiency (over the holidays, for example), and stretches where that dominance has returned. There has been very little predictability with Minnesota thus far, and it has produced some high highs and some very low lows. Things have been better recently, however, with the Twolves winning four out of their last 5 games coming into this one, albeit against some lower tier competition for the most part.

Injuries have been a major story for the Warriors this season, but tonight they should be relatively healthy in comparison. Draymond is questionable, so that is the big one to watch out for. Gary Payton II may make his return this evening as well, which would give the Warriors depth a much needed boost.

Golden State 110 Minnesota 109

These teams have already met 3 times this season, with the Warriors taking 2 out of 3, including the most recent meeting being a Warriors victory in Minnesota. This should be another close one, and we are going to assume that the Warriors will play everyone, which creates some value on the visitors here. Minnesota should be better on a more consistent basis than the Warriors, but their erratic performances leave the door open for a veteran-laden Warriors team to grab a sneaky victory here to end their road trip and head home for a little rest.

Consensus odds currently:

Minnesota -6 O/U 215

The Vikings are…checks notes…14-3?! When the season outlook was taking shape, it was unclear if the Vikings were starting a full rebuild, retool, whatever you like to call it, under their rookie QB J.J. McCarthy. After a preseason, season-ending injury to the young signal caller, many thought (including the Sports Owl) the Vikings would finish near the bottom of the NFC North, and even the bottom of the NFL. Enter Sam Darnold. Yes, that Sam Darnold. The former top draft pick turned journeyman, has journeyed his way to borderline franchise QB status under Kevin O’Connell with the Vikings, passing for over 4,300 yards and 35 passing TDs, a remarkable feat. A defense that was picked by many to be bottom tier in the NFL has also enjoyed a remarkable run this season, ranking 5th in points allowed per game under the direction of rumored head coaching candidate Brian Flores, who started the year defending stray shots in the media from his former Dolphins QB. The Vikings three losses are worth noting here, as two of them came to their NFC North foes in Detroit, while the only other loss came to their current playoff opponent, the Rams, back in October. Their 14-3 record also makes them winningest road Wild Card team in NFL history.

After starting out the season 1-4, there were whispers of retirement, trading Cooper Kupp, and tanking for a better draft pick, but the Rams were having none of that, and have since rallied to win 5 out of their last 6 games, locking up the NFC West for the fourth time during the illustrious young career of Sean McVay. During this hot stretch, the Rams have relied on a balanced attack with Kyren Williams rushing for nearly 1,300 yeards this season, and their two star wideouts, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp giving Matthew Stafford all the options he needs to power an offense. This was evident in the Rams miraculous 44-42 victory over the Bills a month ago, and the Rams defense then proceeded to allow less than 10 points to the Jets, 49ers, and Cardinals afterwards. Their only loss during this stretch was in the season finale against the Seahawks in a game where the Rams had already locked up their home playoff game. Now the boys from LA (one set of them, at least) welcome their former offensive coordinator that led their attack in their Super Bowl Winning season 5 years ago. Outside of football, many of the Rams will be playing with away from home and with heavy hearts for their community tonight, for obvious reasons.

Both of these teams have done an excellent job of managing nagging injuries down the stretch, and that leaves us with a nearly empty list of inactives for this one. The only potential absence that we need to keep an eye on is the status of RB Cam Akers, who came down with an illness yesterday. However, with a healthy Kyren Williams, a Cam Akers absence could also be relatively meaningless.

The dome in Glendale, Arizona will provide a weather-free game. We can only imagine, however, what the LA players must be feeling as a result of this temporary relocation.

The Owl predicts:

Los Angeles 24 Minnesota 17

Emotions could play more of a role in this one than any other Wild Card game this weekend, as the Rams deal with an unprecedented situation at home. On top of that, we have one head coach going against his old boss, and bulletin board material given to the Rams in the form of Dan Campbell’s dismissal of the Rams in the Vikings-Lions postgame handshake last week. We never want to rely too much on narrative, but this is a rare case where we are placing our trust in Sean McVay’s ability to harness that emotion and combine it with the tactical know-how to quash the revival of Sam Darnold under the direction of his former offensive coordinator. We expect the Rams to learn some things from the Lion’s dismantling of the Vikings last week and give O’Connell’s boys an early exit to a dream season.

Consensus odds currently:

Min -2.5 O/U 47.5

The Baker Mayfield era in Tampa Bay has been cemented this season, with the former #1 pick turned journeyman finally finding his footing in South Florida to the tune of division-leading 9-7 season to go along with his 4,000+ passing yards and over 40 passing touchdowns. The Bucs come into this one winning 5 out of their last 6, albeit against bottom tier competition for the most part, including a victory their last time out in unimpressive, but entertaining fashion. Baker and the Bucs were forced to come from behind against the lowly Saints, and they did so late while ensuring that Mike Evans had the moment of a lifetime to finish the game. A distressful afternoon became a gleeful one in a flurry, and the Bucs and their fans will be feeling the good vibes as they try to repeat their Wild Card round success from almost exactly one year ago when they blew out the Eagles at home 32-9. Tampa Bay will be feeling even more confident knowing that they also beat this year’s opponent in Week 1 of the regular season 37-20.

The Commanders could not have asked for anything more than this. After languishing near the bottom of the league and without a QB of note for…20 years…the Commanders have found their franchise QB and savior in Jayden Daniels, who is the clear ROTY in the NFL. Daniels has wiggled his way to an amazing 3500+ passing yard and 900+ rushing yard season while leading the Commanders to a shocking 12-5 record. We would be remiss if we didn’t also mention the notable impact of new head coach Dan Quinn and his offensive play caller Kliff Kingsbury, both of which will be strong favorites for coach of the year awards. Washington comes into this one have won all of their last 5 games, and will have the confidence to take their high flying show on the road against the weakest of the NFC playoff division winners. Washington NFL franchise fans will find this week’s opponent an oddly familiar one in the playoffs, as the Commanders last playoff game was also in Tampa Bay, a game in which they lost 31-23. On top of that, the Washington NFL franchise’s last playoff victory was also in Tampa Bay nearly 20 years ago, when they beat the Buccaneers 17-10 in Tampa Bay in 2006.

The Commanders come into this one very healthy, and we do not need to mention any of their slight concerns in detail. The same cannot be said for the Bucs, who have a couple of concerning questionable tags that have plagued them over the stretch run, including LB Lavonte David, CB Jamel Dean, and TE Cade Otton. A struggling New Orleans defense was able to take advantage of the Bucs defensive injury woes, so we expect Tampa Bay to prioritize getting as many defensive playoffs back out there as possible for this one.

It should be a pleasant and slightly chilly evening for South Florida, but there is not expected precipitation and very little wind in the forecast. Perfect conditions for a shootout.

The Owl predicts:

Washington 34 Tampa Bay 28

In their first meeting this season, Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay put on an aerial show and Todd Boles was able to contain Jayden Daniels in his first ever NFL start. Things have changed since then, with the Bucs losing some key pieces, notably Chris Godwin, and the Commanders defense improving greatly down the stretch. That being said, points should be fast and heavy in this one, as the offensive prowess of both teams will surely outweigh the defensive gains of Washington and the beaten down Bucs. Jayden Daniels has shown repeatedly this season that he has a flair for the dramatic, and the bigger the moment, the greater he performs. We expect that quality to be center stage this evening.

Consensus odds currently:

TB -3 O/U 50.5

It is the Josh Allen’s world and we are all just living in it. The presumptive MVP (although we don’t necessarily believe that is right) got engaged, has been putting on a show every week, and has the Bills at home in the playoffs yet again. The Bills roll into this one at 13-4 after having dropped their season finale to a tanking Patriots team in a game where both teams rested their starters. This may have been a masterclass in strategy on the Bills part, as the Pats ended up costing themselves the #1 draft pick in the process. Even with a losing taste in their mouth, the Bills enter the playoffs as a super bowl contender with an elite offense and a defense that does enough to keep other teams at a distance while Josh Allens barrels his way down the field. The emergence of James Cook as a high-end running back only adds to the problems that opposing defenses have to scheme for. Josh Allen’s Bills are 4-1 in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, and enter this year full of confidence.

Broncos fans are on top of the world right now as their team has finally turned things around and seemed set up for the future with a head coach and QB combination that could last them a decade if everything goes as planned. Bo Nix entered this season as an afterthought in the rookie QB world, but has emerged a legitimate ROTY contender with his exciting, albeit dangerous at times, style of play. After an 0-2 start where Bo Nix looked erratic, the Broncos went 10-5 the rest of the way to snag the final playoff spot in the AFC, a dream result for a team that has been in the doldrums since the short-lived Peyton Manning era. In addition to their rookie sensation, the Broncos are led by their elite defense, which ranks second in both passing and rushing yards per attempt allowed. Their last time out, in a win or go home game at home against their division rival Chiefs, the Broncos blanked the Chief’s backups 38-0 in impressive fashion. In the past 3 games, Bo Nix has 9 passing TDs and just 1 interception.

Normally we would have a couple paragraphs here to talk about these two team’s injuries, but both of these squads are shockingly healthy, to the point where we don’t even really need to mention any injuries at all! Hoorah!

Weather is always a concern, or at least a factor, in Buffalo, but it should be relatively tame for this one. The temperature should hover around 30 degrees with a slight wind and little to no snow.

The Owl predicts:

Buffalo 31 Denver 20

Josh Allen and Sean McDermott are 4-1 in the Wild Card round together, and we see no reason why this matchup would cause them significant problems as the Bills seem destined to meet Kansas City in an epic pre-Super Bowl matchup yet again. The Denver defense is daunting, but Josh Allen breaks down all trends with his ability to improvise, and we expect that to happen often here. Sean Payton will have some tricks up his sleeve and Denver has enough interesting pieces to make this a game, but Buffalo will be too much for them in the end, and there should be some fireworks in this one.

Consensus odds currently:

Buffalo -8.5 O/U 48

The Ravens have gone about their business this season in a perhaps un-Raven like way that we are accustomed too, with Lamar Jackson having one of the best statistical seasons by a QB in NFL history and a the defense performing at a an unexpectedly poor level. The Ravens pass defense ranks second to last overall in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, and they have repeatedly been gashed deep down the field, which could spell trouble against a Russell Wilson led offense that likes to take deep shots. The big talking point heading into the postseason, however, will inevitably be the postseason performance of the aforementioned Lamar Jackson, who is 2-4 in the postseason in seven years and has also historically struggled against Mike Tomlin defenses. Lamar and the Ravens will look to rely on the broad shoulders of Derrick Henry, who has sparked the Ravens run offense in a way that feels so Ravens-like that it is hard to imagine a time that Derrick Henry wasn’t a Raven.

In a season that started off with gusto, the Black and Gold have faded down the stretch, albeit at the hands of some stiff competition, to the tune of the typical Mike Tomlin comfort zone of 10-6. Since the aforementioned victory in Cincinnati, Tomlin’s men have dropped 3 out of 4 to Philly, Baltimore, and Kansas City, with the lone victory coming against the lowly Browns. There has been some talk that the Steelers may not be especially motivated in this spot given their sealed playoff spot, but they can still win the division if Baltimore falters in the earlier Saturday game, and even if they do not, the Steelers will be playing for the 5 seed rather than the 6, and we expect that Mike Tomlin will want to taste winning regardless after this difficult stretch.

The big injury news leading up to this game is that star WR Zay Flowers has been ruled out for Baltimore, giving Lamar Jackson one less weapon against a defense that has historically given him problems. In their last matchup, Flowers had 5 catches for 100 yards, and he also scored a TD in their first matchup this season. Kyle Hamilton should be good to go for the Ravens, however.

On the Steelers side, there are a few minor concerns. DT Cam Heyward and K Chris Boswell both sat out of practice with an illness, but we are going to assume they won’t miss this one. G Mason McCormick is hoping to be available this week after breaking his hand, and CB Donte Jackson is also trying to make his way back from a back injury, but may not be ready.

It is going to be a cold one, folks. Not unbearable, but the entire game should be in the low 20s, with gusty winds and a wind chill in the teens or lower. Not fun to play in, but could be fun for fans that want to see an old school AFC North brawl.

The Owl predicts:

Baltimore 20 Pittsburgh 17

Mike Tomlin has a 21-16 record against Baltimore, and the Steelers have won eight of the past 10 matchups. We have a hard time seeing a blowout given these two team’s familiarity with each other, and given the stakes and weather conditions, this has all the makings for an ugly, defensive showdown. Expect the Steelers to make a couple big plays against a suspect Ravens secondary to keep the game close throughout, but the Ravens will be too much in the end.

Consensus odds currently:

Bal -9.5 O/U 43.5

Golden State is not having a fun time. The legendary core was broken apart this season when the front office spurned Klay Thompson and he rightfully left to Dallas, and the remnants are struggling to stay at .500 and manage their workloads with injury problems testing their depth. The recent loss of Jonathan Kuminga, who seemed to be taking a leap this season, is not helping matters, and that has been evident in their last two games, which were both blowout losses at home to Sacramento and Miami. Statistically, Golden Sate is now consistently average by almost any metric, and they rely on epic performances by Steph to get them over the hill. He is still very capable of doing so, but the burden appears significant and the Warriors will hope to save enough in the reserve tank for a playoff run.

The Pistons, on the other hand, are having a lot of fun. The Bad Boys (doesn’t really apply anymore, but hey, let’s give it to them) are rolling and are above .500 at the latest point in a season since 2018. Cade Cunningham is their unquestioned leader at this point, and the surrounding cast that was significantly boosted in the offseason has provided him with much needed scoring options and a defensive intensity that has been lacking in recent years. Even after the horrifying injury to Jaden Ivey, the Pistons haven’t missed a beat, and they will relish the opportunity to show their worth against a team that Cunningham probably grew up watching in admiration as a teenager. Over the past 10 games, the Pistons rank 9th in overall net efficiency, a dream stretch for suffering Pistons fans of the past decade.

Injuries and potential rest will play a part in this one, as Steph, Draymond, Schroeder, are all listed as questionable, while the aforementioned Kuminga remains out. Steve Kerr mentioned that Gary Payton II and Brandin Podziemski could return on this road trip, but that will not happen tonight. With the second game of a back-to-back awaiting the Warriors in Indiana tomorrow, it is unclear who will rest in which game at the moment. The Pistons should be ready to go injury-wise outside of the long term injuries and barring any surprises.

The Owl predicts:

Golden State 110 Detroit 108

We first need to mention that a lot of people are dealing with tragedy in LA right now, including Steve Kerr and Draymond Green (and I am sure others in this game), and these are just people that are playing a game. We hope that everyone stays safe and our thoughts are with them.

With all of that going on and after taking a pummeling at home, maybe the Warriors need a road trip right now, and we expect them to put up one of their better efforts tonight. This should be a close one, and we are going to assume that the Warriors will play everyone (especially Draymond, who is coming home), which creates some value on the visitors here.

Consensus odds currently:

Golden State 2.5 O/U 220

Any readers of the Owl (I like to imagine they are out there somewhere) will know that we faded the Bucks their last time out in Toronto, and boy did they prove us wrong. Milwaukee seemed to have turned a corner before the holidays, winning 6 out of 7, and quieting some of their critics in the process. The deer then proceeded to lose 4 out 5, with all 4 of those losses coming at the hands of bottom tier competition (Nets x2, Bulls, and Trailblazers). In their last outing, they flipped the script again in a dominant performance on both ends of the floor in Toronto. Khris Middleton is also working his way back into the starting lineup and he will also be available tonight, which is good news for a Bucks team that is looking to build some momentum with their aging core heading into the second half of the season. One positive that Milwaukee fans can take from this stretch: the Bucks rank 2nd overall in defensive efficiency over the last 10 games.

The Spurs are enjoying an optimistic glow that surrounds them and their young star in Victor Wembanyama, and for good reason. San Antonio is 18-18, a large improvement considering their abysmal record the last few years, and Wemby has been putting on show on a nightly basis, which has earned him praise from all corners of the Association, including most recently from the reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. Couple that with the show he put on for national viewers over the holidays, and the country now has a collective Wemby-fever at the moment. The addition of Chris Paul as a winning veteran presence has certainly helped as well, and his competitive attitude seems to be spreading to Wemby as well, as evidenced by his defiance in the face of Russell Westbrook the other night. I think we can all agree that is a good thing for basketball fans in the future. Despite all of the positivity surrounding this team, the Spurs come into this one having dropped their last two games to the Bulls and Nuggets.

The injury sheet is mostly clean for this one, a welcomed sight, but key winger and defensive presence Jeremy Sochan will be out for the Spurs due to lower back tightness. Milwaukee will have all of their aging stars for this one, a rare occasion.

The Owl predicts:

Milwaukee 113 San Antonio 104

Last season, we may have added 20 points to each team’s total in this one, but these are different times. Over the last 10 games, these are the 2nd and 3rd ranked defenses in overall efficiency, and both teams play at a much slower pace than they did previously. The Bucks likely because of Doc Rivers and an emphasis on the half court offense, and the Spurs because of the Chris Paul effect. While Wemby is giving every center in the league fits, Giannis is physically superior and always up for a challenge. We expect Giannis to throw his weight around and try to get Wemby in foul trouble. This should be an uglier than expected game with Milwaukee keeping the Spurs at a distance in the second half.

Consensus odds currently:

Mil -5.5 O/U 225

Boston just goes about their business, seemingly the same regular season team for….forever now. That’s not true, but it feels like Boston is the most bankable regular season team under this current regime and core group of players. They are masters of maintaining their energy levels, mixing and matching, and continuing to be an overall nightmare for teams on a regular basis. They currently rank 3rd this season in net efficiency overall, trailing only Cleveland and OKC, which says more about those two teams than it does about the Celtics, we think. Before losing the other night in a game that they controlled in the first half, Boston had won 3 in a row in convincing fashion, and they are currently in the midst of a long road trip that ends tonight.

NBA champions 2 years ago and led by the reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, Denver could be seeing the slow signs of decline that come with age and lack of spending from ownership come to fruition this season. Denver has struggled with consistency, which has led to a 20-14 record. Their lack of depth has been tested repeatedly this season, and while they have the stars to win any game, it is a big ask on a core that has a ton of extra playoff experience weighing on their legs. This is most evident in their bottom tier defensive ranking, as they tend to outscore teams with their offensive weapons. All that being said, the Nuggets come in to this one winning 4 out of their last 5, and they have consistently been putting up 120+ per game over this recent stretch.

The Celtics injury list is shockingly shenanigan-less for the most part tonight, but there is one notable cause for concern in the questionable (illness) status for Derrick White. He woke up this morning not feeling well, so lets hope he is fine by tip-off. Nothing much to note on the Denver side, except that Aaron Gordon remains out, a key piece that Denver will sorely miss in this one.

The Owl predicts:

Boston 128 Denver 118

If Derrick White is out, his 3-and-D will hurt the Celtics against a Denver team that can really score and struggles in transition on D. Even without White, the Celtics have to be fuming after their embarrassing 2nd half performance a couple nights ago in OKC, and they should be locked in for this one. That spells trouble for a Denver team that has been inconsistent this year and has been beating up on average and below average teams lately while still allowing a boatload of points defensively. Boston is deeper and will keep Denver at arm’s length.

Consensus odds currently:

Bos -5 O/U 237

An up and down season has plagued the Minnesota Timberwolves, after an amazing season a year ago and some major offseason moves that looked to take this team from championship contender to champion. While everyone has struggled to gel in various ways, the most notable has been the unhappiness of star Anthony Edwards, who has become increasingly vocal both on and off the court about the way teams are defending him and his perceived lack of officiating generosity. As a team, a team known for their defense a year ago has seen stretches where they rank near the bottom in defensive efficiency (over the holidays, for example), and stretches where that dominance has returned. There has been very little predictability with Minnesota thus far, and it has produced some high highs and some very low lows.

One thing that has been predictable, however, is the poor play of the Pelicans. The boys in NOLA have had a miserable season thus far, with only 7 wins, two of which have come in the last two games against a team that is fighting with them for the crown of futility, the Wizards. Injuries and discontent is the story here, with star Zion Williamson once again missing a large chunk of the season, Brandon Ingram out for most of the year, and role players consistently missing time at various points. The recent form of CJ McCollum has been a bright spot lately, and he has scored at least 30 points in 3 of their last 5 games, including a 50 spot in an epic and emotional performance for the home crowd on Friday.

No injury concerns for the T-wolves here, they are ready to go even if they are a little tired from last night. The Pelicans injury woes continue, as Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy are ruled out alongside Zion. Dejounte Murray is also listed as questionable, which would be a major blow to the home team’s chances.

The Owl predicts:

Minnesota 114 New Orleans 98

New Orleans is feeling a brief moment of optimism on the heels of back-to-back victories, but Minnesota is the far superior team and should handle business on the road even with no rest. Minnesota is 3-1 this season ATS on the 2nd game of a back-to-back, and New Orleans is abysmal ATS in nearly every measurable way. Minnesota will look to clamp down on the defensive end and suffocate the Pelicans into submission.

Consensus odds currently:

Min - 4.5 O/U 222.5

Things could not have started out worse for the dinosaurs from the great city up north. And no, I don’t mean the Bucks. Toronto has been plagued with all sorts of injuries to their erratic, but exciting cast of offensive weapons. Immanuel Quickley, Scottie Barnes, and RJ Barrett have all missed significant time this season, and they have struggled to find any sort of continuity, which has resulted in an 8-27 record overall. Their offense shows flashes at times of being unstoppable, but there have been some major duds thrown in as well, including their last game against the Bucks and their last outing at home against Orlando. Toronto faithful will hope that tonight, however, showcases what they can be when the full cast of characters is on display. If RJ Barrett returns, it will be the first time that the planned starting 5 will be on the court together this season. Even if he is not, Toronto will have more firepower than they have had most of the season.

Milwaukee seemed to have turned a corner before the holidays, winning 6 out of 7, and quieting some of their critics in the process. The deer then proceeded to lose 4 out 5, with all 4 of those losses coming at the hands of bottom tier competition (Nets x2, Bulls, and Trailblazers). It is hard to pinpoint exactly what is going on, but it can mostly be chalked up to an aging core that rarely has its few pieces together and very little depth to compliment Giannis and Lillard when they don’t. Khris Middleton is also working his way back into the starting lineup, so this could just be a stretch of growing pains as they work everything out before a spring run. One positive that Milwaukee fans can take from this stretch: the Bucks rank 3rd overall in defensive efficiency over the last 10 games.

Both Khris Middleton and Giannis have indicated that they are good to go for this one, giving Milwaukee its full complement of stars on rare occasion this season.

Toronto is almost back to full health, but that status rests on RJ Barrett, who is still questionable with an illness. If he suits up, expect the line to move a point or two in Toronto’s favor.

The Owl predicts

Milwaukee 122 Toronto 117

Milwaukee is desperate to feel success with their 3 stars all playing at once, while Toronto is desperate for…anything. We expect Milwaukee to figure it out in the end, but expect Toronto to make things difficult and make the Bucks run up and down the floor. They should have more success doing this than they did against Orlando, and defense will be at a premium in this one. Toronto is 11-5-1 ATS as a home dog, and 18-13-1 ATS vs. teams that allow points at the rate the Bucks do. Milwaukee is sub .500 ATS in almost all categories for this one.

Consensus odds currently:

Mil -7.5 O/U 231

The Baker Mayfield era in Tampa Bay has been cemented this season, with the former #1 pick turned journeyman finally finding his footing in South Florida to the tune of division-leading 9-7 season to go along with his 4,000+ passing yards and nearly 40 passing touchdowns. He will be eager to get that 40th TD pass against a New Orleans team that Tampa lit up for 50 points in their first meeting, and he will have the added motivation of being snubbed for the Pro Bowl despite his prolific numbers. Normally, we might not give any credence to a Pro Bowl snub given how useless the game itself has become, but knowing Baker, he will use anything as extra motivation. The Bucs themselves will have plenty of motivation, because a win here against their longtime rivals will clinch the AFC South and a home playoff game. The Bucs come into this one winning 4 out of their last 5, albeit against bottom tier competition for the most part.

The Saints would love to spoil the party for Baker and his buds (especially Mike Evans), but they have had a hard time spoiling as much as an egg down the stretch of this miserable season that started off flying with Derek Carr, but has since fallen off a cliff. The Saints fired their coach, lost Derek Carr to multiple injuries, lost Chris Olave (until this week), and lost their sense of defensive identity, which now ranks near the bottom in both passing and rushing defense overall. This has culminated in the Saints losing 4 out of their last 5, with the lone win coming against the abysmal Giants by a field goal. Coupled with the poor defense that has plagued the men from NOLA all year, former hotshot prospect Spencer Rattler has struggled mightily since taking over at QB. The Saints have failed to break 20 points in any of their last 7 games and are the only team to be shutout completely in the NFL this season.

New Orleans could get Chris Olave back for this one, but fans might be hoping he takes the extra rest in a meaningless game for the Saints. Most notably, Alvin Kamara will remain out, and the offense will struggle to find balance without their star RB and starting QB.

The Bucs have a couple concerning defensive absentees in this one, including LB Lavonte David and CB Jamel Dean. On the offensive side, star OT Tristan Wirfs and rookie sensation Bucky Irving (RB) will be playing, but TE Cade Otton is now doubtful.

It should be a pleasant and sunny day in South Florida, ideal for an aerial show from the home team.

The Owl predicts:

Tampa Bay 38 New Orleans 13

Tampa’s injury concerns are noteworthy, but they could be missing half of their starters against this New Orleans team and still be a touchdown favorite. We cannot rule out the possibility that the pressure of the situation combines with the spoiler role for a trap game against a division rival, but Tampa should find little to no resistance on defense and Todd Boles can work around his defensive injury woes to stop the putrid New Orleans attack. This should be over relatively quickly and Tampa will keep pressing into the 3rd quarter, but run the clock out in the 4th.

Consensus odds currently:

TB -14 O/U 43.5

A unique season for Atlanta is likely coming to a close this week unless Tampa falters against the Saints, but they will take solace regardless in hopefully finding their franchise QB, albeit at the hefty expense of Kirk Cousins’s ill-fated contract, in Michael Penix Jr., who looked competent in his first start 2 weeks ago and downright magnificent in his last start in a thriller against the Commanders. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, the Atlanta defense couldn’t hold off another spectacular rookie performance in Washington, but the OT forcing drive led by Penix Jr. in the final minute was something to behold. With a solid running game led by Bijan Robinson, the Atlanta offense has found balance and a more predictable reliability without the turnovers being handed out like Halloween candy in the Kirk Cousins era. Atlanta will be confident with a 38-20 victory in Carolina earlier this year to build off of in this one.

Carolina, on the other hand, has also given their fans some reason for optimism heading into next year after a first half of the season that looked like a dumpster fire in Chernobyl. After seeming like one of the worst draft picks in NFL history, Bryce Young has responded dramatically down the stretch and led the Panthers to victories in 3 victories while keeping them close against the likes of the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bucs. One thing Bryce Young and the offense can’t help with, however, is Carolina’s league worst defense, that allows the most yards per rushing attempt in the NFL and the 4th most passing yards per attempt (this is not a good combination). Carolina will be playing nothing more than spoiler in this one, and their fans would like to see their draft position improve with a 13th loss on the year.

Atlanta suddenly has a lot of questionable tags for this one, but the two worth watching are Drake London and Darnell Mooney. We expect both to play, so no major concerns there.

Carolina has not been the same since Chuba Hubbard went down with an injury, and that could be a major issue in this one as well. We also have questionable tags for key defenders like Josey Jewell and Jaycee Horn, both of which might sit out given the lack of motivation to win this one for Carolina. We could see other players rested as the game goes on if the Panthers want to ensure a loss.

No need to think about the weather in this one. Everyone will be comfortable and cozy inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The Owl predicts:

Atlanta 31 Carolina 13

Without Chuba, it is hard to see any sort of balance in this Carolina offense, even if Atlanta’s defense is suspect at times. Atlanta has the motivation in this one and should have their way on offense against a tanking Carolina defense that could also be without some of its key leaders. This should get ugly quickly, and look for Atlanta to salt away the game on the ground and shorten this one to an under.

Consensus odds currently:

Atl -7.5 O/U 48

In a season that started off with gusto, the Black and Gold have faded down the stretch, albeit at the hands of some stiff competition, to the tune of the typical Mike Tomlin comfort zone of 10-6. Since the aforementioned victory in Cincinnati, Tomlin’s men have dropped 3 out of 4 to Philly, Baltimore, and Kansas City, with the lone victory coming against the lowly Browns. There has been some talk that the Steelers may not be especially motivated in this spot given their sealed playoff spot, but they can still win the division if Baltimore falters in the earlier Saturday game, and even if they do not, the Steelers will be playing for the 5 seed rather than the 6, and we expect that Mike Tomlin will want to taste winning regardless after this difficult stretch.

The Bengals, on the other hand, are in the midst of a wild ride that has led them back to .500 after numerous disappointing performances in the first 2/3 of the season. Since falling to Pittsburgh, the Bengals have rattled off wins against Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, and Denver. Not exactly murderer’s row, but Bengals fans will be happy to see another week of meaningful football given the ineptitude of the team outside of the offense. Last week, Joe Burrow led the team to a dramatic overtime victory in a must-win situation over the Denver team that they are chasing for the final AFC playoff spot after seemingly leading them to victory multiple drives before overtime. If the Bengals were to win this game and make the playoffs somehow, the rest of the AFC playoff teams will be on alert given their offensive potency.

The Steelers will be thankful to have George Pickens back, especially against a Bengals pass defense that allowed Russell Wilson to throw for over 400 yards in their last meeting.

A few minor injuries on both sides, but the notable ones worth watching here are to Chase Brown (RB) and Tee Higgins (WR), who are both listed as questionable and really make the Bengals offense go. We expect Higgins to play, but Brown is truly questionable and the offense becomes much more one-dimensional when he is not around.

The forecast has improved slightly for this one, and we should have a cold game that is absent of any real wind or precipitation. If any unexpected weather comes in this weekend, expect the total to drop closer to 45.

The Owl says:

Pittsburgh 24 Cincinnati 20

The market’s confidence in Joe Burrow leading the Bengals to a 5th straight victory is rightfully high, but not much has changed with the Bengals porous defense during this win streak against bottom tier teams, and the Steelers have already proven adept at exploiting it just a month ago. The last meeting was a shootout, but history suggests that a cold weather divisional game in Pittsburgh should make points harder to come by as well. We also expect that while the Steelers exploited the Bengals pass defense in the last meeting, they will look to focus on the run game here to shorten the game and keep Joe Burrow off the field as much as possible.

We may all want to see the Bengals sneak into the playoffs, but this bunch will rightfully be sitting at home next week.

Consensus odds currently:

Cincinatti -2 O/U 48

In a turbulent start to the season that has included less than stellar results, constant trade rumors involving Jimmy Butler, and a brawl, the Heat sit at 17-14, which is good for 6th in the East. A deep bench and an unpredictable rotation has kept their veterans relatively rested, and they seemed positioned to round into form after whatever transpires at the trade deadline. In their last 10 games, the Heat are top 10 in net efficiency overall, including a workmanlike win last night against New Orleans that saw Miami maintain a double digit lead for most of the game.

Indiana, on the other hand, sits at 16-18, good for 8th in the East. 6-4 in their last 10 against daunting competition gives Rick Carlisle and the Pacers reason for optimism going forward, and the high-pace boys from Indianapolis also find themselves top 10 in net efficiency overall in their last 10 games, a feat that may be flying under the radar for those that have been focused on holiday celebrations.

Miami’s injury report is constantly evolving and changing, and it is something worth monitoring later in the day in case there are any surprises. They should have a full cast of characters, however, as many of the veterans took the night off or played limited minutes against New Orleans.

No big changes for Indiana, who is still without the likes of key wingman Aaron Nesmith, but remains relatively healthy otherwise.

The Owl Says:

Indiana 117 Miami 111

The disparity in strength of schedule between these two over the holiday stretch is staggering, with Indiana playing the Warriors, Thunder, Boston (2x), and Milwaukee, while Miami has beat up on middle to low competition. The last time these two teams met, the Pacers won 119-110, and we think a similar result could be in store tonight as Miami runs out of steam late against a rested Pacers team that will want to push them in transition.

Consensus odds at time of writing:

Miami -1.5 O/U 223.5

Overall record (W-T-L): 1-3-2

The 49ers (and their fans) would probably like for this season to be over sooner rather than later. The Niners stumbled early and often, navigating injuries, distractions, and flat-out disappointments on their way to an unthinkable 6-9 record for one of the preseason Super Bowl favorites. In a pleasant rewind to their 2023 form, the 49ers smashed the Bears 38-13 earlier in December, but have since fallen at home to the Rams (6-12), and on the road in Miami (17-29).

The Motor City Kitties, on the other hand, continue on their dreamy trajectory towards the a potential #1 seed in the NFC for the first time in their history, a feat that only eludes 4 other NFL franchises. The Lions enter Levi’s stadium at 13-2, and they may have their eyes looking forward to next weekend when they welcome the even more surprising Minnesota Vikings to Ford Field for a juicy NFC North-clinching matchup. After falling short against Josh Allen and the Bills, the Lions took care of business in Chicago last week (34-17) and head west with their confidence intact. A win over the team that crushed their dreams last season in dramatic fashion would be a welcome belated Christmas gift.

The Lions injury woes started back in Week 6 with the loss of Aiden Hutchinson, and it has only gotten worse over the course of the year with an IR list longer than the list of metaphors Dan Campbell has at his disposal.

The recent loss of David Montgomery may be the most impactful in this particular matchup, as San Francisco is most susceptible on the ground.

49ers fans might argue that their injury problems have been equally disabling this year, with the lost seasons for stars Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams, just to name a few.

Now, the Niners will also notably be without Charvarious Ward (CB) and Dre Greenlaw (LB), who were both ruled out late this week. The loss of Ward could prove significant given the Lions prowess in the passing game and Ward’s high utilization this season.

The running game will get a boost with the return of Isaac Guerendo, who was starting to find a groove before missing last week with a hamstring injury.

It should be a balmy 50 degrees with a dash of wind and no precipitation in the forecast in the beautiful town of Santa Clara, CA. We don’t have to factor the weather into this one in any negative sense. We do have to remember that the Lions are traveling West, with a lookahead to a short week before the big NFC North title-clinching matchup back at home.

The Owl Says:

Lions 30 49ers 17

The Lions could be in for a surprise here with the 49ers ability to limit yards after the catch, an area that the Lions rely on. The Lions rank bottom-middle in yards before the catch on average while leading the league in yards after the catch. If the Niners can keep Jared Goff and his band of speedy marauders contained, they should be able to lean on Guerendo and Taylor to attack a depleted Lions defensive line to keep this one close.

However, the defensive losses on the San Francisco side will prove to be too much against a Lions team that tends to avoid letdowns in spots like this under Dan Campbell and is motivated to keep pace in the NFC and give the 49ers a little bit of payback for the unceremonious ending they endured almost a year ago.

Consensus odds at time of writing:

DET -3.5 O/U 50.5

Overall record (W-T-L): 0-0-0